 | Category: | Books | | Genre: | Science | | Author: | Gareth Renowden |
Left unchecked, global warming will bring greater weather extremes, plant and animal extinctions and rapidly rising seas warns the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate change is already making its mark according to this latest report which cites melting glaciers, rising average temperatures and sea level rise.
The book Hot Topic - Global Warming And The Future of New Zealand by our own New Zealand science writer Gareth Renowden takes a serious look at how global climate change will affect the islands of New Zealand and the people who live here. "The world is warming twenty times faster than the most rapid changes that have happened in recent times, such as the warming that took place coming out of the last Ice Age", he states.
This all may seem irrelevant to people outside New Zealand's shores but New Zealand is a microcosm of the sorts of things that will happen world wide as our planet warms up. It is no good continuing to unproductively argue over whether global climate change exists or not, we need to be planning for the future now.
Currently Gareth Renowden owns a small farm in the Waipara wine district where he grows truffles, olives, and grapes. The main grape grown in Waipara currently is the Pinot Noir, but thirty years from now Waipara may have become to warm for these cool climate vines, instead, Gareth Renowden's book predicts that the Waipara growers may well need to change to warmer climate grapes like merlot. He also suggests that the way in which growers produce their crops is also likely to change and expect to see a trend towards "carbon labelling" on products like wine, as growers focus on reducing their carbon emissions.
According to Gareth Renowden, the temperatures that we are seeing today are in fact twenty or thirty years behind where the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is. This is because there is a lag in the warming of the world caused by the oceans which take a longer time to warm up. Therefore no matter what we do now, the planet will continue to warm over the next twenty to thirty years and adaptation to warming is a critical part of the response to this unavoidable climate change.
However carbon emission reductions made today will help to slow the rate of global warming thirty years from now. He therefore supports MainPower's proposed wind farm at Mt Cass.
While fresh water will become an increasingly precious commodity, the rates of future sea level rises come with potentially big impacts not just on New Zealand but on all low-lying Pacific Island nations. Global warming in the Pacific is likely to result in "climate refugees".
The Global Warming Outlook For Canterbury, NZ (from the book)
Over the next few decades warming is likely to continue at 0.2 deg C per decade. The warming will be greater in winter. The likelihood is that the eastern parts of our country will warm slightly more than the west.
As the average temperature increases, the probability of extreme events - either cold or hot - also increases. Heat waves will be more frequent and there will be fewer frosts.
The increase in the westerly flow of wind, (westerlies are hot, dry, and gusty winds), will have an important impact on the regions rainfall. By the end of this century Canterbury (which already has a dry climate) will be drier.
By the 2030's there will be water availability problems on all of the east coast of the South Island. Under a low to medium warming scenario, the risk of what is currently a one in twenty year drought may double in the easternmost parts of Canterbury.
Rising sea levels may accelerate coastal erosion and flood groundwater systems with seawater. 
 | I just watched the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth," which covered a lot about what your covering here. Time to take action.... |
 | ifiik wrote on Dec 4, '07 You people....make me laugh....global warming.....yup, it happens....but its a weather thing.....yes, ok pollution plays a small part of it, but in documented history, it occurs in a cycle, every few thousand years.....we cant do anything to stop it......so why worry?????? |
 | the amount of rain forrest destroyed in 1 hour is the equivalent of 30 football pitches ,or an area the size of Wales a year,now as some of us know trees produce oxygen ,we need oxygen to live ,they convert carbon dioxide to oxygen(clever stuff). so even if global warming has nothing to do with the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we will still need it to live,(thats so we can watch the world burn up) .it is said the world won,t end with a bang only a whimper.enjoy your day |
 | Al Gore has spoken: The world must embrace a "carbon-neutral lifestyle." To do otherwise, he says, will result in a cataclysmic catastrophe. "Humanity is sitting on a ticking time bomb," warns the website for his film, An Inconvenient Truth. "We have just 10 years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet into a tailspin."
Graciously, Gore tells consumers how to change their lives to curb their carbon-gobbling ways: Switch to compact fluorescent light bulbs, use a clothesline, drive a hybrid, use renewable energy, dramatically cut back on consumption. Better still, responsible global citizens can follow Gore's example, because, as he readily points out in his speeches, he lives a "carbon-neutral lifestyle." But if Al Gore is the world's role model for ecology, the planet is doomed.
For someone who says the sky is falling, he does very little. He says he recycles and drives a hybrid. And he claims he uses renewable energy credits to offset the pollution he produces when using a private jet to promote his film. (In reality, Paramount Classics, the film's distributor, pays this.)
Public records reveal that as Gore lectures Americans on excessive consumption, he and his wife Tipper live in two properties: a 10,000-square-foot, 20-room, eight-bathroom home in Nashville, and a 4,000-square-foot home in Arlington, Va. (He also has a third home in Carthage, Tenn.) For someone rallying the planet to pursue a path of extreme personal sacrifice, Gore requires little from himself.
according to public records, there is no evidence that Gore has signed up to use green energy in either of his large residences. When contacted Wednesday, Gore's office confirmed as much but said the Gores were looking into making the switch at both homes. Talk about inconvenient truths.
Gore is not alone. Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean has said, "Global warming is happening, and it threatens our very existence." The DNC website applauds the fact that Gore has "tried to move people to act." Yet, astoundingly, Gore's persuasive powers have failed to convince his own party: The DNC has not signed up to pay an additional two pennies a kilowatt hour to go green. For that matter, neither has the Republican National Committee.
Maybe our very existence isn't threatened.
The issue here is not simply Gore's hypocrisy; it's a question of credibility. If he genuinely believes the apocalyptic vision he has put forth and calls for radical changes in the way other people live, why hasn't he made any radical change in his life? Giving up the zinc mine or one of his homes is not asking much, given that he wants the rest of us to radically change our lives.
The earth goes through climate changes every few thousand years. Mr. Gore just found away to use this for his own gain!
|
 | I completely agree jadelady--in the 20's people were living in Greenland---There is no trend and no "actual proof" that there's a hole in the ozone layer--but as for our natural resources--yes, we could die out if we deplete our water, then that in turn our food source and our air is kinda important too---as for all this government money going in to study why it's happening look around--the earth's inhabitants re filled with apathy--that will be our ultimate extinction--NO ONE CARES! |
| btw--gore is the AntiChrist! lol |
 | wrenomatic wrote on Dec 4, '07, edited on Dec 4, '07 I think that excessive consumption and pollution are the main concerns because these affect the resources of the earth. We need clean water, clean air, and our trees. There has been a global warming and yes, in the meantime, a necessity to alter the way food is grown. Apparently, global warming is cyclical. Why did global warming turn into climate change? In the 1970's there was a global cooling scare. Money is to be made on all counts. 'Scares' change peoples purchasing habits. The global warming scare creates consumption on one hand as people adjust their furnaces, appliances, vehicles, etc. on one hand and reduce their consumption on the other hand. As an example: People are rushing out to buy incandescent bulbs without realizing the implications of the mercury they contain, GE is making money. Incandesent bulbs will eventually create more pollution - one of the main concerns. They say now that we will be returning to a cooling trend. How do the grape growers in New Zealand make their decision about switching crops with all the conflicting views that are out there? How do you or I make our decisions? Here is a very easy to understand site that was built from the cyclical perspective. http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/ice_ages.html"Scientists who want to attract attention to themselves, who want to attract great funding to themselves, have to (find a) way to scare the public . . . and this you can achieve only by making things bigger and more dangerous than they really are." Petr Chylek (Professor of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia) Commenting on reports by other researchers that Greenland's glaciers are melting. (Halifax Chronicle-Herald, August 22, 2001) (8) Nobody is interested in solutions if they don't think there's a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are... former Vice President Al Gore (now, chairman and co-founder of Generation Investment Management-- a London-based business that sells carbon credits) (in interview with Grist Magazine May 9, 2006, concerning his book, An Inconvenient Truth) |
 | All these points are well taken.
Here's a little known fact concerning the warming climate:
Vermont, a northern state in the U.S. is famous for Maple Syrup. The climate has become too warm for these climate sensitive trees to grow in. They are dying. The production of Maple Syrup is a major asset of the Vermont economy for both the industry itself and for tourism.
Should the remaining trees die, the entire economy of the State may fail on a scale similar to the collapse of Detroit Michigan when the car factories closed. |
| Hi. whether it's been caused by human activities or not changes in the weather are already apparent here with unusual weather patterns affecting the seasons and wildlife. If the oceans rise as predicted this whole city will be under water . Even greater dangers exist for UK and NE Europe. Ironically global warming could result in a new ice age here. As the Greenland ice cap melts pouring fresh water into the N. Atlantic, there is a danger as the levels in salinity through the sea layers change that the Gulf Stream will slow, stop and even reverse. This would catapult NE Europe into a new Ice Age. The Gulf Stream has already slowed significantly. I studied global warming at University around years ago, when only the academics realised what could happen and no-one else believed them. The predictions we examined then in levels of greenhouse gases, temp and sea levels have all so far come true. It's possibly too late to avert some of these changes all around the world. Lets hope we can all work together to lessen the impact especially on those who are already surviving on the edge. An interesting post. Have a good week , dave. |
 | Kia ora Frank, Ifik, Ducky, Jaded Lady (I have not met you before I don't think, nice to meet you now), Gina, Wren, Poli, Dave. Welcome to my page and thank you for your comments.
I personally have not viewed the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" so I prefer not to comment on it. What I have done is read books like the one above that I just wrote about and many other academic books and reports like it, including the Stern Review from the UK which was the subject of an earlier blog. I suspect Al Gore's doco uses at least some of the same sources.
Ducky's comment comes from a report about Indonesia where they are indeed felling natural rainforest at the rate of 30 football pitches an hour. This is economically lucrative because not only do they get to sell the timber, the bare land is being planted in trees that produce Palm Oil which is used in cosmetics and now in developing biofuels so that people can continue to drive their gas guzzling monstrosities as often as they please instead of having to address changes to their own lifestyle. This is where educating ourselves becomes so important. Using biofuels is one thing and could be useful but when rainforests which are natural carbon sinks (because it is trees that have kept the natural balance by holding carbons), anyhow when these trees are felled those carbons are now released again into our atmosphere. The wholesale felling of trees and forests has been happening since the beginning of the "industrial revolution" 200 years ago and in itself is a huge contributor to the accelerated climate change.
Over periods of millions of years this planet has indeed gone through many globalised coolings and warmings but at its own pace and it should be remembered that the last time the planet was as warm as the projected temperatures which are indicated in the Stern Review for the year 2050 if we keep on the same track as we are currently on, there were no people in existence then. The point here is that we don't even know if human beings can exist with a planet at that temperature or not because they never have done so. In the year 2050 I will be dead anyway but my two oldest grandchildren will turn 50 that year. I expect by then that they will have children of their own and maybe even grandchildren. The people of those 3 generations will be our guinea pigs in effect. I wonder what they will think of us.
|
| well said Iri. it's not us that will suffer but our offspring |
| The first of December was the official first day of summer here in New Zealand, right now its midday and about 25 degrees Celcius (if you aren't used to Celcius thats hot ok) and I have just come in for a break from lawn mowing. So please bear with me people I am melting...
I think it is a dangerous thing to play personality politics over important issues such as global warming. What we need to focus on is things that we can do to minimise pollution of our planet that we all have to share. My friend Mary has written a blog about buying American goods at Xmas time, but globally in each of our countries we should be trying to buy locally made goods. This way we can force companies to bring production back to our own shores where not only do we keep our own people in work but we can control the polluters which we cannot do when the goods are being manufactured in places like China. Its a fat lot of use patting ourselves on the back for how clean and green our own country may be if all our companies are fouling the waterways and air in Asia. Buying locally made products also means less fossil fuels are being wasted in transportation costs. |
| For people who are interested I have added a link to the Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change. You can download the entire thing for free (good wintertime reading for northern hemisphere folk) lol. |
| ifiik wrote on Dec 5, '07 Due to the fact that glabal warming is to the earth what eating pizza is to my kids.... a common occurance.....
Now some not so stupid greenie and a not so dumb polititian have gotten together, and created this world wide scare, to eradicate man-made gases...its all guess work, and the melting of the artic ice, at both ends of the pole, is as common occurance, as summer and winter.
This occurs because of the orbiting of the planet around the sun, and how close we get, or how far away we are.....look at one time this occured just a few hundred years ago.... a man named NOAH built an ark and floated about for 40 days..........
So, its inevitable we get glabal warming....if you want to go scare mongering, have a go at George Bush and his oil wars.....or the Japs inhumane treatment of whales and dolphins....pick on something useful........... |
| Kia ora again Ifik/Peter.
First I need to state that this is just a book review of a book written by a well known New Zealand scientist about what is to come in the lifetime of our children and how people in New Zealand can rise to meet the challenge. I myself have never called facing reality scaremongering. The conversation about global climate change has been going on since the 1970's, the scientists have been investigating and analysing since then.
In this book review I never once mention any overseas politicians or "greenies". I cannot control the the thoughts or the comments that other people have brought to this discussion (other than deleting them of course, but I believe in democracy and free expression as long as it is kept free of personal abuse. That I will delete).
The bottom line as I see it is this. Regardless of whether we "believe" that global climate is a threat to our continued existence or not we should be taking better care of our planet. Do we really want filthy air, filthy waterways, chemicals poisoning our unborn children and yes! we should be taking care of the creatures around us like the whales and dolphins and frogs and birds etc, I completely agree with you on that, and I agree with you about the warmongering too, one thing nobody has commented on is the disgusting chemicals being dumped via weapons into the Middle East in the name of "Freedom?!" Really? Are only western countries entitled to freedom? Are only the people in western countries entitled to live in peace and without fear?
In the end the planet doesn't need us but we need it. |
| ifiik wrote on Dec 5, '07 I call it scaremongering, because the greenies and pollies are deliberately distorting the facts to suit their own needs, and if you read all those reports carefully, is there any mention of the clycitic nature of global warming and cooling?
No, they are saying its all because of mans pollution, when its clearly not.
I do not agree with widespread pollution that is going on, I do support greenhouse gasses reductions, but I just have a huge problem with the way theyre trying to get their message across.
I make NO PERSONAL attacks on anyone, I'm merely voicing my opinion here, in what I see as a wrong doing, in the way people are being scared into thinking the world will end tomorrow type thing.
Yes we are killing our planet slowly, with the Amazonian forest destruction, but even you, failed to mention the destruction of forests in Northern Europe, by man-made gasses, that have wiped out thousands of acres of trees and plants.
Another thing, you touched on briefly, is that in some areas, admittedly not enough, in the areas being cleared of 'old forest', young trees are being re-planted, such as the work undertaken around Tokoroa and Muraparra, in New Zealand, where by these trees are being harvested and then replanted over and over, and have been since the great depression. My own grandfather, planted thousands of recyclable trees in the '30's, and those trees are now being taken, fresh ones replacing them.
I can remember him saying, that although it was a work programme thought up by beaurocrats to keep men in work during the depression, it was going to be the forestry way of the future...he is right.
I must also agree with the dumping of chemicals in the middle east, under the name of war....but you have to seriously look at the idiot in charge of the American political machine and listen to his latest looney comments as to why the war should continue................................. |
| Firstly I did not view your comment as a personal attack. lol. I hope you are not interpreting mine as a personal attack either because they are not. There is nothing wrong in disagreeing with people or having decent productive discussion.
We have clearly read different reports. The ones I have read have been quite calm and yes they do mention the cycles of planet warming and cooling. My understanding of the current situation is that the concern is about the accelerated nature of the warming and how what has happened (industrialisation, globalisation, etc) of the past 200 years has become part of the accelerated process.
In the end Peter you and I may just have to agree to disagree about this whole thing. When you cite concerns about the way some groups are trying to get the message across I actually have to agree with you there, I do not like scaremongering tactics either. I try to avoid those too. What I do try to read are scientifically based, calmer reports like that of the Stern Review or the above book that I was actually reporting on in the original book review.
I didn't even think about the Northern Europe forests, which is why I didn't mention them but you are quite right about that.
The world will not end. What is in question here (regardless of whether global warming is humanly induced or not) is whether human beings can survive in a warmed up planet and how we may need to adapt in order to survive. Cleaning up the way we live on this earth has got to be beneficial to all creatures.
I had uncles planting trees back then too just outside of Picton. I think they have mostly all been harvested now.
I did hear his latest looney comments. I think. Or we might have heard different looney comments...
|
| ifiik wrote on Dec 5, '07 yes...we should agree to dsagree....I'm not about to sacrifice a friendship over differing thoughts....not worth it.
Besides, basically, we believe in the same theme here, just comming at it from different angles. |
 | I haven't read the book, but in my opinion we should be doing all we can as individuals to slow down G.W. Many people in the US laugh at Al Gore's movie. I thought it was worth taking into consideration. I don't know (ifiik) but it sounds like he is just to lazy to get involved.
i |
Comment deleted at the request of the thread owner. | ifiik wrote on Mar 29, '08 Ok...enough is enough.
I went out to dinner last Sunday night, and one of the other guests became of particular interest to me, when we got on the subject of global warming.
Now as a fully qualified C.S.I.R.O Scientist, some of his comments I found fascinating were.....
1/. In school, we all grew up looking at drawings in science books, depicting the orbit of Earth, around our sun star.
If you remember, it also had several oval shaped markings, that represented the orbits of Earth.None of those orbits were exactly the same as the others, thus showing orbiting closer and further away fromthe sun.
Bearing this in mimd, since the creation of Earth, our overall picture of our four seasons has been draughted and understood, but the warming and cooling cycles have been over-looked.
2/. As these cycles take thousands of years to pass, either cooling or warming, it is easy to predict the outcome of each cycle.Some very unscrupulous governments are taking hold of these facts and distorting them into scare-mongering tactics.
3/. While on a 6 month tour of duty back in the 80's, our Professor friend was involved in drilling and collecting core samples ogf ice, in the Abtarctic regions. These cores of ice were in layers, not unlike onions. From each layer, they were able to determine roughly when, and how long each cooling/warming cycle lasted, and when they started and ended.
4/.We all ended up agreeing, upon the evidence presented into the debate, that the propaganda being issued today is 85 % falacy, 15% truth.
Yes, mans own polluting habits are hurting the enviornment, but not to the extent we are being led to believe.
There is no evidence to support a theory of mans bad Earth care habits creating enviormental disasters in our past history.
This is unique to our last 300 years of industrialisation, and, our experimentations into the nuclear work.
Now on Saturday night, 29/03/08, we were asked to turn out our electric lighting, and go candle power for one hour, as a way of saving our enviormental gasses.
Any fool knows....that an open flamed candle burns more gasses in 10 minutes, than a filament enclosed on a glass bulb burns in 3 days continual use.
This is a scientifically proven fact, my C.S.I.R.O friend thinks was performed by the great Albert Einstein, back in the 1950's.But he wasnt really sure.
I'm sorry if you all find what I say is crap, but remember, before some bright spark gave Christopher Columbus a pump, the world was flat, and people would be lost foreve, when they sailed over the edge.................................................. |
| ifiik wrote on Mar 29, '08 To fine attitude...
(I am not too lazy at all.....I like to research before committing one way or the other..if this is laziness, then , yes, I am guilty, proudly!!
And in future, please state your point of view, WITHOUTresorting to personal attacks, thank you. |
Comment deleted at the request of the thread owner. | Hot Topic has been shortlisted as one of five finalists for the first Royal Society of New Zealand Science Book Prize. The competition’s stiff. HT is up against four extremely good books: The Awa Book of New Zealand Science, edited by Rebecca Priestley (Awa Press), Falling for Science, by Bernard Beckett (Longacre Press), In Search of Ancient New Zealand, by Hamish Campbell and Gerard Hutching (Penguin), and Wetlands of New Zealand: A Bitter-sweet Story by Janet Hunt (Random House). http://hot-topic.co.nz/hot-topic-shortlisted-for-rsnz-science-book-prize/ |
Comment deleted at the request of the thread owner.
|
truths...
...inside every woman is a scribe
wanting to/ set the record straight...
...in rooms and cells up and down the country
women/ whose throats are dry, who are unable
any longer/ to speak, pen notes to themselves
they tell tales./ and in the night, in the deep part
of the black/ night the women come and go,
doing a soft shoe/ shuffle, walking down valium alley
heads bent/ and penitent, keeping an eye out for angels
and/ the night nurse riding his charger, and in the/ night
when the corridors sting with silence they/ come and go
lulling each other, eyes zipped wide,/ they go in file down
librium mile and back...
...and in one-roomed flats and beazley homes they/
sit in locked lavatories scribbling fast in time/
to children, they write poems on tables littered/
with crumbs and jam to the beat of the AM band./
they record the songs of all the women in the/ world./
each one an image of her sister...
...this text is edited from a poem by
nz poet and broadcaster
mike minehan (1990)
of course, now we blog./ arohanui./
|
